Market Snapshot | April 16th, 2018 | Darel Ansley | People's Bank
April 16, 2018 | Jeff Hallman
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Inside Lending
 
 
 
 
  Darel Ansley Darel Ansley
Senior Real Estate Loan Officer
NMLS# 500247
901 North Mission Street
Wenatchee, WA 98801Office: (509) 664-5324
Mobile: (509) 860-3301
Fax: (509) 664-5315
darel.ansley@peoplesbank-wa.com
www.peoplesbank-wa.com/darel
  Peoples Bank  
 
For the week of April 16, 2018 — Vol. 16, Issue 16
>> Market Update
QUOTATION OF THE WEEK..."I've got all the money I'll ever need, if I die by four o'clock." --Henny Youngman, English-born American comedian
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Fannie Mae's latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index reports more people say now is a good time to buy--and more also say now is a good time to sell. Happy Spring!
Pew Research Center reports the number of multigenerational households hit an all-time high in 2016.  Homes with two or more adult generations grew to 20% of the population--64 million people--according to Census Bureau data.
It's terrific to see the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) award a record $28 billion to help nine states, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands recover from last year's disasters.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... When prospects give you their contacts, get back to them as soon as you can. Studies show response time is the biggest factor determining whether a contact becomes a workable lead or a missed opportunity. 

>> Review of Last Week

ROLLER COASTER UP... After two years of calm growth, the stock market went volatile in 2018. The S&P 500 has moved up or down more than 1% six weeks in a row. Last week the ol' Wall Street roller coaster climbed back up.
Trade war worries eased as Chinese President Xi Jinping said he plans to "significantly" cut tariffs on imported automobiles, reduce duties on other goods and improve foreign firms' intellectual property rights.  Welcome to The Art of the Deal, Mr. Xi. 

The Mideast got tense, but nothing happened by market close on Friday. Analysts say Q1 corporate earnings will be solid and inflation is trending up, so economic strength should keep  the Fed on track for two more rate hikes this year.
The week ended with the Dow UP 1.8%, to 24360; the S&P 500 UP 2.0%, to 2656; and the Nasdaq UP 2.8%, to 7107.

Bonds were held down by surging stocks and rate hike concerns. The 30YR FNMA 4.0%, bond we watch ended the week down .32, at $102.27. N ational average 30-year fixed mortgage rates  held steady in Freddie  Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW?... More than a million cars were flooded in l ast year's hurricanes. When buying a used vehicle, be sure to have it checked for water damage.
>> This Week's Forecast
RETAIL SALES HEAD UP, SO DOES  HOME BUILDING... Analysts expect healthy Retail Sales growth again in March. Likewise, home building should come in with higher Housing Starts and Building Permits. We'll also check the Beige Book's take on economic conditions in each Fed District.  
>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Apr 16 - Apr 20
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Apr 16
08:30
Retail Sales Mar
0.4% -0.1% HIGH
M
Apr 16
08:30
NY Empire Manufacturing Index Apr
20.0 22.5 Moderate
M
Apr 16
10:00
Business Inventories Feb
0.6% 0.6% Moderate
Tu
Apr 17
08:30
Housing Starts Mar
1.268M 1.236M Moderate
Tu
Apr 17
08:30
Building Permits Mar
1.315M 1.298M Moderate
Tu
Apr 17
09:15 Industrial Production Mar
0.3% 1.1% Moderate
Tu
Apr 17
09:15 Capacity Utilization Mar
77.8% 78.1% Moderate
W
Apr 18
10:30
Crude Inventories 04/14 NA NA Moderate
W
Apr 18
14:00 Fed's Beige Book Mar NA NA Moderate
Th
Apr 19
08:30
Initial Unemployment Claims
04/14
226K 233K Moderate
Th
Apr 19
08:30
Continuing Unemployment Claims
04/07
NA 1.871M Moderate
Th
Apr 19
08:30
Philadelphia Fed Index Apr
21.0 22.3 HIGH
Th
Apr 19
10:00
Leading Economic Index (LEI) Mar
0.4% 0.6% Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Almost everyone thinks the Fed won't raise rates in May, but will go for the year's second hike in June. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate  will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.50%-1.75%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
May 2 1.50%-1.75%
Jun 13 1.75%-2.00%
Aug 1 1.75%-2.00%
 
Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
May 2          1%
Jun 13        99%
Aug 1
         7%
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