Market Snapshot | July 24th, 2018 | Darel Ansley | People's Bank
July 24, 2018 | Darel Ansley
 
  Darel Ansley Darel Ansley
Senior Real Estate Loan Officer
NMLS# 500247
901 North Mission Street
Wenatchee, WA 98801Office: (509) 664-5324
Mobile: (509) 860-3301
Fax: (509) 664-5315
darel.ansley@peoplesbank-wa.com
www.peoplesbank-wa.com/darel
  Peoples Bank  
 
For the week of July 23, 2018 — Vol. 16, Issue 30

>> Market Update

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK... "Insanity is hereditary. You get it from your children." --Sam Levenson, American humorist

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... After rising in May at their fastest pace in 11 years, Housing Starts fell 12.3% in June, to a 1.173 million annual rate. Yet the National Association of Home Builders reports strong buyer demand keeps builder optimism historically high.    The fact is, housing starts data is quite volatile month to month. To allow for this, compare the first six months of 2018 with the same period in 2017 and you'll find starts are up 7.4% versus a year ago.  Similarly, building permits were down 2.2% in June, to a 1.273 million annual rate. Yet the three-month average is close to its highest level since 2007. Also, Q2 saw builders completing units at the fastest quarterly pace since the recession.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...  Four great lead sources: present  clients; past clients; prospects you haven't contacted in a while; and cold called prospects who like your pitch but  don't need you now--ask if they can refer you to someone who might.
>> Review of Last Week

HEADLINES, .. Headlines screamed tariff and interest rate warnings, but investors took them in stride, as climbing corporate profits and steady economic data left the three major stock indexes little changed for the week.
Retail Sales rose in June for the fifth month in a row, a strong 0.5%.  Economists linked this to lower taxes and  higher employment, as  weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in more than 48 years.
And let's remember, the Fed only hikes short-term interest rates. Long-term mortgage rates don't necessarily rise by the same amount as the Fed Funds Rate, or at the same time. 

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.2%, to 25058; the S&P 500 UP 0.52, to 2802; and the Nasdaq down 0.1%, to 7820.    After outperforming for weeks, longer dated Treasuries and mortgage bonds finished a bit lower on Friday. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .17, to $101.81. T he national  average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched backward in  Freddie Mac's  latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey . Remember, mortgage rates  c an be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW?...  Freddie Mac's chief economist says the lack of movement in mortgage rates is "good news for price sensitive home shoppers, given that this stability in borrowing costs gives them a little extra time to find the right home."

>> This Week's Forecast
EXISTING HOME SALES UP, NEW HOMES OFF, AS THE ECONOMY SPIKES... Economists predict Existing Home Sales to recover in June, New Home Sales to slip a bit, and economic growth to hit 4.1% in the GDP-Advanced read for Q2.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jul 23 - Jul 27
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Jul 23
10:00
Existing Home Sales Jun
5.45M 5.43M Moderate
W
Jul 25
10:00
New Home Sales Jun
670K 689K Moderate
W
Jul 25
10:30
Crude Inventories
07/21
NA +5.8M Moderate
Th
Jul 26
08:30
Initial Unemployment Claims
07/21
215K 207K Moderate
Th
Jul 26
08:30
Continuing Unemployment Claims
07/14
NA 1.751M Moderate
Th
Jul 26
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Jun 3.2% -0.6% Moderate
Th
Jul 26
08:30
Durable Goods Orders - ex transportation Jun 0.4% -0.3% Moderate
F
Jul 27
08:30
GDP - Advanced Q2 4.1% 2.0% HIGH
F
Jul 27
10:00
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final Jul 97.1 97.1 Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...For all the worries voiced lately over rate hikes, the Fed Funds futures market sees no move in August and just a small blip in September, then nothing again in November. Note: In the lower chart, a 3% probability of change is a 97% certainty the rate  will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Aug   1
1.75%-2.00%
Sep 26
2.00%-2.25%
Nov   8 2.00%-2.25%
 
Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Aug   1
           3%
Sep 26
         89%
Nov   8
         18%
Share

check_circle

You message has been sent!

Send us a Message: