Market Snapshot | March 06 2019 | Darel Ansley | People's Bank
March 6, 2019 | Darel Ansley
Inside Lending
 
Brought to you by Darel Ansley 

 
   
MARKET UPDATE
 
   
The home building took a breather in December, as Housing Starts dipped 11.2% for the month, to a 1.078 million annual rate. But looking at 2018 versus 2017 annual average, starts are up 3.0% overall. 
Building permits were up 0.3% in December, and are up 2.2% in 2018 versus 2017. About 187,000 units were authorized but not started, the most since 2007, while the number of units under construction stayed at a post-recession high.

The Pending Home Sales measure of contracts signed on existing homes gained 4.6% in January following their December dip. This points to more closed sales on existing homes come February. 
 

 
   
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
 
   
HAPPY NEW YEAR... As February ended on Thursday, the S&P 500 posted the best two-month start to the year in more than 30 years  , up 11.8%. It was also up for the week, along with the Nasdaq, while the Dow finished flat.
Traders liked the news that the U.S. and China could reach a deal in as little as two weeks, consumer confidence rose in February, PCE inflation stayed under 2%, and the Chicago PMI showed strong manufacturing sentiment.
Pundits itching for a recession had to be disappointed to see GDP growth came in at a better-than-expected 2.6% for Q4 and 2.9% for the year, making 2018 the best year of growth for this economic expansion.
The week ended with the Dow down 5 points, to 26026; the S&P 500 UP 0.4%, to 2804; and the Nasdaq UP 0.9%, to 7595.
Positive economic data drove bonds lower. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .33, to $101.81. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate unchanged after three weeks of declines  . Remember  , mortgage rates  c  an be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW?... The Census Bureau reports that the homeownership rate hit 64.8% in the last quarter, continuing a steadily increasing trend after sinking to a nearly all-time low in Q2 of 2016.
 

 
   
THIS WEEK'S FORECAST
 
   
DECEMBER NEW HOME SALES, JANUARY STARTS REBOUND, JOBS GAIN...The government shutdown delayed some data, so this week we get December New  Homes Sales, expected up, then January Housing Starts rebounding hot on the heels of  last week's disappointing December Starts. More Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast for February, as well as continued wage gains.
NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.
 

 
   
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
 
   
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The central bankers keep saying they'll be "patient" about hiking rates this year, and the Fed Funds Futures market continues to believe them. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% probability the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.25%-2.50%
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Mar  20
2.25%-2.50%
May   1
2.25%-2.50%
Jun  19
2.25%-2.50%
Probability of change from current policy:
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Mar  20
    1%
May   1
    2%
Jun  19
    4%
 

 

 
   
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
 
  You can't outperform your beliefs about yourself. The key thing to believe is that you're 100% in control of your results. The exceptional advice and value you give your clients will keep you successful regardless of market conditions or other outside factors.  

 
  Darel Ansley Darel Ansley
Senior Real Estate Loan Officer
NMLS# 500247
901 North Mission Street
Wenatchee, WA 98801Office: (509) 664-5324
Mobile: (509) 860-3301
Fax: (509) 664-5315
darel.ansley@peoplesbank-wa.com
www.peoplesbank-wa.com/darel
  Peoples Bank  
 
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